Markii saliidda cayriin ay kor u kacday hal habeen, qiimaha shidaalka iyo naaftada gudaha ayaa mar kale furay kor u kac cusub, galabtii meelaha qaar, qaybta ugu weyn ee shidaalka iyo naaftada ayaa leh laba ama xitaa saddex hagaajin oo kor u kaca ah, naaftada ayaa bilaabay inay yeelato xeeladda iibka xaddidan. beryahan danbe waxa ay baahida batroolku ka danbeysey kororka safarada xagaaga iyo saliida qaboojiyaha, hase yeeshee naaftada ayaa ku sii socota roobabka ka da'aya gobolada waqooyi iyo koonfurta, baahida loo qabo ayaan wax badan ka soo roonayn.

Marka loo eego la socodka xogta Longzhong, laga soo bilaabo labada shax ee kor ku xusan, bilawgii Agoosto ee sanadkan, qiimaha shidaalka gudaha iyo naaftada ayaa kor u kacay bilawgii Luulyo, shidaalku wuxuu kor u kacay inta u dhaxaysa 45-367 yuan / ton, Shandong waxay leedahay korodhka ugu yar; Korodhka naaftada ee meelo kala duwan waa 713-946 yuan/ton, kororku wuu ka badan yahay meel kasta, kororka naaftada ayaa ka weyn kan shidaalka.

Ka dib dhowr wareeg oo riixid ah, sababaha gaarka ah ayaa qiyaas ahaan kuwan soo socda:

1. Kor u kaca qiimaha saliida cayriin ee caalamiga ah

Laga soo bilaabo bilowgii Luulyo ilaa bilowgii Agoosto, Sacuudi Carabiya iyo Ruushka waxay sii daayeen dhimis dheeraad ah oo wax soo saar ah, iyo heerka ugu sarreeya ee isticmaalka shidaalka ee Maraykanka iyo rajada dhaqaale ee Aasiya ayaa la filayaa inay ka sii fiicnaato, iyo hoos u dhaca alaabooyinka saliidda cayriin ee ganacsiga Maraykanka waxa taageeray war wanaagsan, iyo qiimaha saliidda cayriin ee caalamiga ah ayaa kor u kacay. Laga bilaabo Agoosto 3, Brent wuxuu xidhay $85.14 / BBL, ilaa $10.49 / BBL ama 14.05% laga bilaabo bilawgii Luulyo.

2. faa'iidada shidaalka gudaha iyo naaftada dhoofisa oo badan

Sida laga soo xigtay la socodka xogta Longzhong, oo tusaale u soo qaatay dekedda Koonfurta Shiinaha, laga bilaabo bartamihii bishii June ee sanadkan, gaaska gudaha iyo naaftada dhoofinta daaqad mid ka mid ah ayaa la furay. Laga bilaabo Agoosto 3, faa'iidada shidaalka Shiinaha ee loo dhoofiyo Singapore waxay ahayd 183 yuan / ton, ilaa 322.48% bartamihii Juun; Faa'iidada dhoofinta naaftada waxay ahayd 708 yuan/ton, ilaa 319.08% badhtamihii Juun.

Iyada oo korodhka faa'iidada dhoofinta shidaalka iyo naaftada, suuqa ayaa la filayaa inuu dhoofiyo dhoofin dheeraad ah, iyo qaar ka mid ah cutubyada ugu muhiimsan ee July si loo furo, horraantii Luulyo, qaar ka mid ah kuwa ugu muhiimsan ee Bariga Shiinaha 92 # qiimaha shidaalka 8380 yuan / ton , ilaa Agoosto 3, qiimuhu wuxuu kacay 8700 yuan / ton, korodhka 320 yuan / ton ama 3.82%; Qiimaha naaftada dibadda laga keeno ayaa ka kacay 6,860 yuan/ton ilaa 7,750 yuan/ton, korodhka 890 yuan/ton ama 12.97%. Markii cutubyadii ugu muhiimsanaa ay bilaabeen in ay ururiyaan uumiga iyo naaftada, qaar ka mid ah dalaaliinta ayaa dhab ahaantii dabagal ku sameeyay, qiimaha hal mugga ee maraakiibta shidaalka iyo naaftada, iyo xitaa qiimaha saliidda cayriin ayaa hoos u dhacay mararka qaarkood, laakiin qiimaha shidaalka iyo naaftada ayaa kor u kacay halkii ay ahayd. dhacaya.

3, hawl-wadeenada suuqa ayaa fiiro gaar ah u leh kootada dhoofinta

Ilaa hadda, Wasaaradda Ganacsiga Shiinaha ayaa soo saartay laba qaybood oo kootada dhoofinta saliidda sifaysan sanadkan, taas oo dhan 27.99 milyan oo tan. Laga soo bilaabo Jannaayo ilaa Juunyo, mugga dhoofinta badeecadaha saliidda la safeeyey ee Shiinaha wuxuu ahaa 20.3883 milyan oo tan. Haddii badeecadaha saliidda ee la safeeyey ee dibadda laga soo dhoofiyo laga saaray, mugga dhoofinta dhabta ahi wuxuu ahaa 20.2729 milyan oo tan, heerka dhammaystirka kootada dhoofintu waxay ahayd 72.43%, waxaana jiray 7.717,100 ton oo kootada dhoofinta ah oo la dhammaystiray. Sida laga soo xigtay Longzhong macluumaadka laga bartay suuqa, mugga dhoofinta la qorsheeyay ee wax soo saarka saliidda ee Shiinaha bilaha July iyo August waa 7.02 million tons, haddii tiradaas la dhoofin karaa, kootada dhoofinta ee wax soo saarka saliidda ee Shiinaha ee January iyo August waa 97.88% oo kootada laba qaybood ayaa asal ahaan la isticmaalay. Waqtigan xaadirka ah, dhoofinta shidaalka iyo naaftada gudaha waa faa'iido, qaybta saddexaad ee kootada dhoofinta ayaa la filayaa in la soo saaro badhtamaha bishan, ha meesha ka saarin suurtagalnimada in qaar ka mid ah shirkadaha dhoofinta ay ku daraan dhoofinta shidaalka iyo naaftada.

4, Awooddii dayactirka gudaha oo la dhimay, sahaydiina dib ayay u soo laabatay, laakiin waxaa daciifay saamaynta saadka iyo baahida suuqa.

Bishii Agoosto, miisaanka dayactirka ee ugu weyn ee Shiinaha ayaa sii waday inuu hoos u dhaco, marka loo eego tirakoobka macluumaadka Longzhong, bishii Agoosto kaliya Daqing sifeynta iyo kiimikada iyo Lanzhou Petrochemical laba dayactirka sifeynta ugu weyn, oo ku lug leh awoodda dayactirka ama 700,000 tan, in ka yar July 1.4 milyan oo tan, hoos u dhac 66%. Marka loo eego qiyaasaha xogta, wadarta wax-soo-saarka saliidda ee wershadaha waaweyn ee bisha Agoosto ayaa la filayaa inuu kordho 61.3%, ilaa 0.75% marka loo eego bishii hore. Saamiga ayaa sii socday inuu dib ugu soo laabto 1.02. Wax-soo-saarka shidaalka iyo shidaalka diyaaradaha ayaa kordhay shan bilood oo xiriir ah, wax-soo-saarka saliidda naaftada ayaa hoos u dhacay saddex bilood oo xiriir ah. Sidaa darteed, waxa la filayaa in wax-soo-saarka la qorsheeyay ee uumiga, naaftada iyo dhuxusha ee wershada ugu weyn ee August uu noqdo 11.02 milyan oo tan, 11.27 milyan oo tan iyo 5.01 milyan oo tan, siday u kala horreeyaan, taas oo ah + 4.39%, -0.68% iyo +7.92%.

Bishii Agoosto, awoodda dayactirka ee sifaynta madax-bannaan wax badan iskamay beddelin, waxaana la filayaa inay ku lug yeelato 2.27 milyan oo tan oo awoodda dayactirka ah, korodhka 50,000 tan bishii Luulyo, korodhka 2.25%. Inta badan sababtoo ah wershadaha sifaynta ayaa dib loo habeeyey bishii Luulyo, sida Xintai Petrochemical, Yatong Petrochemical, Panjin Haoye iyo warshado kale, iyo Lanqiao Petrochemical, Wudi Xinyue, Dalian Jinyuan, Xinhai Shihua, iwm. ayaa la furi doonaa midba midka kale horraanta Agoosto, kaas oo dib u habeyn doona. Awoodda dib-u-habaynta warshadda Kiimikada Baolai ee Agoosto. Guud ahaan, wax-soo-saarka saliidda sifaysan ee gudaha ayaa la filayaa inuu kordho bisha Agoosto, kuwaasoo ay ka mid yihiin, wax-soo-saarka shidaalka oo kordhay bil kasta, wax-soo-saarka naaftada lama filayo inuu wax badan iska beddelo.

Guud ahaan, qiimaha shidaalka iyo naaftada gudaha ayaa sii waday kor u kaca, inta badan waxaa sabab u ah kor u kaca qiimaha saliidda cayriin, faa'iidada dhoofinta sare, suuqa ayaa la filayaa inuu kordhiyo mugga dhoofinta, iyo "Gold sagaal silver toban" soo socda, suuqu waa in uu hore u sii sameeyaa hawlihii agabka, qiimihii naaftada horena waa mid aad u hooseeya, xamaasadda hawlgalka suuquna waa mid aad u sareysa marka loo eego shidaalka. Qiimaha tafaariiqda ayaa la filayaa inuu kordho usbuuca soo socda, iyo wararka saliidda cayriin ayaa weli ah taageero xooggan, waxaa la filayaa in marka la soo saaro kootada dhoofinta, shidaalka iyo naaftada ayaa laga yaabaa inay sii wadaan inay kor u kacaan.