Iyadoo saliidda cayriin ay habeenkii oo dhan xiran tahay, qiimaha shidaalka iyo naaftada gudaha ayaa mar kale furay kor u kac cusub, galabnimadii meelaha qaar, qaybta ugu weyn ee shidaalka iyo naaftada waxay leedahay laba ama xitaa saddex hagaajin si ay u kordho, naaftadana waxay bilowday inay yeelato istaraatiijiyad iib oo xaddidan. Dhawaan, baahida loo qabo batroolka waxaa taageeray kororka tirada safarrada xagaaga iyo saliidda qaboojiyaha, laakiin naaftada ayaa sii waday inay ku dhacdo roobabka Waqooyiga iyo Koonfurta, baahiduna si weyn uma soo hagaagin.

Sida laga soo xigtay la socodka xogta Longzhong, laga soo bilaabo labada jadwal ee kor ku xusan, bilowgii Agoosto sanadkan, qiimaha shidaalka gudaha iyo naaftada ayaa kor u kacay laga bilaabo bilowgii Luulyo, gaaska ayaa kor u kacay inta u dhaxaysa 45-367 yuan/ton, Shandong ayaa leh kororka ugu yar; Kordhinta naaftada meelo kala duwan waa 713-946 yuan/ton, kororkuna wuu ka weyn yahay meel kasta, kororka naaftadana wuu ka weyn yahay kan naaftada.

Ka dib markii ay jiraan dhowr jeer oo isku xigta, sababaha ugu muhiimsan waa kuwan soo socda:

1. Qiimaha saliidda cayriin ee caalamiga ah oo kor u kacaya

Laga bilaabo bilowgii Luulyo ilaa bilowgii Agoosto, Sacuudi Carabiya iyo Ruushku waxay sii daayeen dhimis wax soo saar oo dheeraad ah, waxaana la filayaa in heerka ugu sarreeya ee isticmaalka shidaalka ee Mareykanka iyo rajada dhaqaale ee Aasiya uu ka sii fiicnaado, hoos u dhaca kaydka saliidda cayriin ee ganacsiga ee Mareykanka waxaa taageeraya war wanaagsan, qiimaha saliidda cayriin ee caalamiga ahna wuu isbedbeddelay. Laga bilaabo Agoosto 3, Brent wuxuu ku xirmay $85.14 / BBL, kor u kacay $10.49 / BBL ama 14.05% laga bilaabo bilowgii Luulyo.

2. faa'iidada dhoofinta shidaalka iyo naaftada gudaha ayaa sareysa

Sida laga soo xigtay Longzhong oo la socota xogta, iyadoo tusaale loo soo qaadanayo dekedda Koonfurta Shiinaha, laga bilaabo bartamihii ilaa dhammaadkii Juun ee sannadkan, daaqadda kala-soocidda dhoofinta shidaalka gudaha iyo naaftada ayaa midba midka kale ka dib la furay. Laga bilaabo Agoosto 3, faa'iidada dhoofinta shidaalka ee Shiinaha ee Singapore waxay ahayd 183 yuan/ton, taasoo kor u kacday 322.48% laga bilaabo bartamihii Juun; faa'iidada dhoofinta naaftada waxay ahayd 708 yuan/ton, taasoo kor u kacday 319.08% laga bilaabo bartamihii Juun.

Iyadoo ay korodhay faa'iidada dhoofinta shidaalka gudaha iyo naaftada, suuqa ayaa la filayaa inuu dhoofiyo dhoofin dheeraad ah, qaar ka mid ah cutubyada ugu muhiimsan bisha Luulyo ayaa furmi doona, horraanta Luulyo, qaar ka mid ah qiimaha gaaska ee ugu muhiimsan Bariga Shiinaha 92# waa 8380 yuan/ton, ilaa Agoosto 3, qiimuhu wuxuu kor u kacay 8700 yuan/ton, koror dhan 320 yuan/ton ama 3.82%; Qiimaha naaftada la soo dejiyo ayaa ka kacay 6,860 yuan/ton ilaa 7,750 yuan/ton, koror dhan 890 yuan/ton ama 12.97%. Markii cutubyada ugu muhiimsan ay bilaabeen inay ururiyaan uumiga iyo naaftada, qaar ka mid ah dhexdhexaadiyeyaasha ayaa dhab ahaantii raacay, qiimaha hal mar ee maraakiibta gaaska iyo naaftada ayaa kor u kacay, xitaa qiimaha saliidda cayriin ayaa hoos u dhacay muddooyinka qaar, laakiin qiimaha gaaska iyo naaftada ayaa kor u kacay halkii uu ka dhici lahaa.

3, hawl wadeenada suuqa waxay fiiro gaar ah u yeeshaan kootada dhoofinta

Ilaa hadda, Wasaaradda Ganacsiga ee Shiinaha ayaa soo saartay laba dufcadood oo kootada dhoofinta saliidda la safeeyey sanadkan, taasoo wadarta guud ka dhigaysa 27.99 milyan oo tan. Laga bilaabo Janaayo ilaa Juun, mugga dhoofinta ee alaabada saliidda la safeeyey ee Shiinaha wuxuu ahaa 20.3883 milyan oo tan. Haddii badeecadaha saliidda la safeeyey ee la soo dhoofiyay ee kormeerka dibadda laga saaray, mugga dhoofinta dhabta ah wuxuu ahaa 20.2729 milyan oo tan, heerka dhammaystirka kootada dhoofinta wuxuu ahaa 72.43%, waxaana jiray 7.717,100 tan oo kootada dhoofinta ah oo la dhammaystiri doono. Sida laga soo xigtay macluumaadka Longzhong ee laga helay suuqa, mugga dhoofinta ee la qorsheeyay ee alaabada saliidda la safeeyey ee Shiinaha ee bilaha Luulyo iyo Agoosto waa 7.02 milyan oo tan, haddii tiradaas la dhoofin karo, kootada dhoofinta ee alaabada saliidda la safeeyey ee Shiinaha ee bilaha Janaayo iyo Agoosto waa 97.88%, kootada laba dufcadoodna asal ahaan waa la isticmaalay. Waqtigan xaadirka ah, dhoofinta shidaalka gudaha iyo naaftada waa mid faa'iido leh, dufcaddii saddexaad ee kootada dhoofinta ayaa la filayaa in la soo saaro bartamaha bishaan, ma meesha ka saarayso suurtagalnimada in hay'adaha dhoofinta qaarkood ay ku daraan dhoofinta gaaska iyo naaftada.

4, awoodda dayactirka gudaha ayaa hoos u dhacday, sahayduna way soo kabatay, laakiin saameynta sahayda iyo baahida suuqa ayaa daciiftay

Bishii Agoosto, heerka dayactirka warshadda ugu weyn ee Shiinaha ayaa sii waday inuu hoos u dhaco, sida laga soo xigtay tirakoobka macluumaadka Longzhong, bishii Agoosto oo keliya dayactirka warshadda kiimikada iyo kiimikada ee Daqing iyo Petrochemical-ka laba warshadood oo waaweyn oo dayactir ah, oo ku lug leh awoodda dayactirka ama 700,000 tan, wax ka yar Luulyo 1.4 milyan oo tan, hoos u dhac 66%. Sida laga soo xigtay qiyaasaha xogta, wadarta wax soo saarka saliidda ee warshaddaha ugu weyn bisha Agoosto ayaa la filayaa inay kor u kacdo 61.3%, taasoo kor u kacday 0.75% bishii hore. Saamiga ayaa sii waday inuu dib ugu dhaco 1.02. Wax soo saarka shidaalka iyo shidaalka diyaaradaha ayaa kordhay shan bilood oo isku xigta, wax soo saarka saliidda naaftadana wuxuu hoos u dhacay saddex bilood oo isku xigta. Sidaa darteed, waxaa la filayaa in wax soo saarka la qorsheeyay ee uumiga, naaftada iyo dhuxusha ee warshadda ugu weyn bisha Agoosto uu yahay 11.02 milyan oo tan, 11.27 milyan oo tan iyo 5.01 milyan oo tan, siday u kala horreeyaan, kaas oo ah +4.39%, -0.68% iyo +7.92%.

Bishii Agoosto, awoodda dayactirka ee warshadaha sifeynta ee madaxa-bannaan wax badan iskama beddelin, waxaana la filayaa inay ku lug yeelato 2.27 milyan oo tan oo awood dayactir ah, taasoo ah koror dhan 50,000 oo tan laga bilaabo Luulyo, koror dhan 2.25%. Inta badan sababtoo ah warshadaha sifeynta ee la dayactiray bishii Luulyo, sida Xintai Petrochemical, Yatong Petrochemical, Panjin Haoye iyo warshado kale oo sifeyn ah, iyo Lanqiao Petrochemical, Wudi Xinyue, Dalian Jinyuan, Xinhai Shihua, iwm. ayaa la furi doonaa midba midka kale horraanta Agoosto, taasoo kaabi doonta awoodda dib-u-habaynta warshadda Baolai Petrochemical bisha Agoosto. Guud ahaan, wax soo saarka saliidda la safeeyey ee gudaha ayaa la filayaa inuu kordho bisha Agoosto, oo ay ku jiraan, wax soo saarka gaaska oo kordhay bil kasta, wax soo saarka naaftadana lama filayo inuu wax badan beddelo.

Guud ahaan, qiimaha shidaalka iyo naaftada gudaha ayaa sii waday inuu kor u kaco, taasoo ugu wacan kororka qiimaha saliidda cayriin, faa'iidada dhoofinta oo sareysa, suuqa ayaa la filayaa inuu kordhiyo mugga dhoofinta, iyo "dahab sagaal lacag ah toban" ayaa soo socda, suuqu waa inuu sameeyaa hawlgallada kaydka kahor, qiimaha naaftada horena waa hooseeyaa, xamaasadda hawlgalka suuquna waa mid aad u sareysa marka loo eego shidaalka. Qiimaha tafaariiqda ayaa la filayaa inuu kor u kaco usbuuca soo socda, wararka saliidda cayriinna wali waa taageero xooggan, waxaa la filayaa in iyadoo la soo saaray kootada dhoofinta, suuqa gaaska iyo naaftada ayaa laga yaabaa inuu sii wado inuu kor u kaco.