Suuqyada Yurub ayaa toddobaadkan ahaa kuwo aad u sarreeya oo aan degganayn, xaaladda Bariga Dhexena waxay ku qasabtay Chevron inay xirto gaaska badda ee Suuriya, suuquna wuu sii argagaxay, laakiin qiimaha mustaqbalka ee TTF ayaa ahaa mid sarreeya oo aan isbeddelin sababtoo ah suuqa hadda jira oo aad u badan.

Dalka Mareykanka, baahida oo gaabis ah iyo daciifnimada argagaxa awgeed, dhoofinta LNG ee Mareykanka ayaa hoos u dhacday toddobaadkan, dhoofinta ayaa hoos u dhacday, sahayda gaaska cayriin ee ka imanaysa terminaalka dhoofinta ayaa daciiftay, laakiin isbeddelka qandaraasyada mustaqbalka ee NG bishaan awgeed, qiimaha gaaska dabiiciga ah ee Mareykanka ayaa kor u kacay.

a) Dulmar guud oo suuqa ah

Laga bilaabo Oktoobar 24, qiimaha mustaqbalka ee gaaska dabiiciga ah ee Mareykanka ee Henry Port (NG) wuxuu ahaa 3.322 doolarka Mareykanka/milyan oo kuleyl ah oo Ingiriis ah, marka la barbar dhigo wareeggii hore (10.17) oo lagu kordhiyay 0.243 doolarka Mareykanka/milyan oo kuleyl ah oo Ingiriis ah, taasoo ah koror dhan 7.89%; Qiimaha mustaqbalka ee gaaska dabiiciga ah ee Nederland (TTF) wuxuu ahaa $15.304 / mmBTU, oo kor u kacay $0.114 / mmBTU marka loo eego wareeggii hore (10.17), ama 0.75%.

Dalka Mareykanka, qiimaha mustaqbalka ee Henry Port (NG) ee Mareykanka ayaa muujiyay isbeddel soo kabasho ah ka dib hoos u dhac guud oo ku yimid usbuuca, qiimaha mustaqbalka ee gaaska dabiiciga ah ee Mareykanka ayaa muujiyay isbeddel hoos u dhac ah toddobaadkan, laakiin saameynta isbeddelka qandaraaska awgeed, qiimaha mustaqbalka ee NG ayaa kor u kacay.

Dhanka dhoofinta, dhoofinta LNG ee Mareykanka ayaa hoos u dhacday toddobaadkan sababo la xiriira baahida oo gaabis ah iyo argagax yaraaday, dhoofintana way yaraaday.

Marka laga eego dhinaca farsamada, mustaqbalka dekedda Henry Port ee Mareykanka (NG) waa gobol hooseeya oo kor u kacaya, qiimaha mustaqbalka dekedda Henry Port ee Mareykanka (NG) wuxuu gaarayaa 3.34 doolarka Mareykanka/milyan oo ah qandhada Ingiriiska oo ku dhow, qiimaha hoose ee KDJ ayaa ku dhow inuu ka soo kaco fargeetada, MACD oo ka hooseysa eber hoose, hoos u dhaca ayaa istaagay, qiimaha mustaqbalka dekedda Henry Port ee Mareykanka (NG) ayaa toddobaadkan muujiyay isbeddel dib u soo kabasho ah.

Yurub, kaydka suuqa Yurub ayaa sii kordhay, sida laga soo xigtay xogta Ururka Kaabayaasha Gaaska Dabiiciga ah ee Yurub ayaa muujinaya in laga bilaabo Oktoobar 23, kaydka guud ee Yurub uu ahaa 1123Twh, iyadoo saamiga awoodda uu ahaa 98.63%, koror dhan 0.05% maalintii hore, iyo koror joogto ah oo ku yimid kaydka.

Suuqyada Yurub ayaa toddobaadkan ahaa kuwo aad u sarreeya oo aan degganayn, xaaladda Bariga Dhexena waxay ku qasabtay Chevron inay xirto gaaska badda ee Suuriya, suuquna wuu sii argagaxay, laakiin qiimaha mustaqbalka ee TTF ayaa ahaa mid sarreeya oo aan isbeddelin sababtoo ah suuqa hadda jira oo aad u badan.

Laga bilaabo Oktoobar 24, Dekadda Mareykanka ee Dekadda Henry Natural Gas (HH) ayaa la filayaa inay muujiso qiimaha $2.95 / mmBTU, oo kor u kacay $0.01 / mmBTU marka loo eego rubacii hore (10.17), taasoo ah koror dhan 0.34%. Qiimaha booska ee Gaaska Dabiiciga ah ee Kanada (AECO) wuxuu ahaa $1.818 / mmBTU, oo kor u kacay $0.1 / mmBTU marka loo eego bishii hore (10.17), taasoo ah koror dhan 5.83%.

Henry Port Natural Gas (HH) wuxuu filayaa in qiimaha booska uu ahaado mid deggan, dhoofinta LNG-ga ayaa daciiftay, baahida suuqa macaamiisha ugu weyn ee ka baxsan gobolka inay ahaato mid deggan, ma jirto taageero muuqata oo wanaagsan, Henry Port Natural Gas (HH) waxaa la filayaa inay sii ahaato mid deggan qiimaha booska.

Laga bilaabo Oktoobar 24, qiimaha Shiinaha (DES) ee ka imanaya Waqooyi-bari Aasiya wuxuu ahaa $17.25 / milyan BTU, oo kor u kacay $0.875 / milyan BTU marka loo eego rubacii hore (10.17), koror dhan 5.34%; qiimaha booska TTF wuxuu ahaa $14.955 / mmBTU, kor u kacay $0.898 / mmBTU marka loo eego rubacii hore (10.17), koror dhan 6.39%.

Qiimaha macaamiisha ee ugu muhiimsan ayaa sii kordhaya, argagaxa macaamiisha ee hadda jira ayaa buuxsamay, fikirka suuqa ee ku saabsan mala-awaalka ayaa xooggan, iibiyeyaasha kor u kacaya qiimaha iibka ayaa sarreeya, taasoo keentay in qiimaha macaamiisha ugu muhiimsan uu kor u kaco.

b) Kaydka alaabta

Toddobaadka dhammaaday Oktoobar 13, sida laga soo xigtay Hay'adda Tamarta Mareykanka, kaydka gaaska dabiiciga ah ee Mareykanka wuxuu ahaa 3,626 bilyan oo cag cubic ah, taasoo ah koror dhan 97 bilyan oo cag cubic ah, ama 2.8%; Kaydka gaaska wuxuu ahaa 3,000 cag cubic ah, ama 9.0%, oo ka sarreeya sanad ka hor. Taasi waa 175 bilyan cag cubic ah, ama 5.1%, oo ka sarreysa celceliska shanta sano.

Toddobaadka dhammaaday Oktoobar 13, kaydka gaaska Yurub wuxuu ahaa 3,926.271 bilyan oo cag cubic ah, taasoo kor u kacday 43.34 bilyan cag cubic ah, ama 1.12%, marka loo eego toddobaadkii hore, sida laga soo xigtay Ururka Kaabayaasha Gaaska ee Yurub. Kaydka gaaska wuxuu ahaa 319.287 bilyan cag cubic ah, ama 8.85%, oo ka sarreeya sanad ka hor.

Toddobaadkan, kaydka gaaska dabiiciga ah ee Mareykanka ayaa si joogto ah kor ugu kacay, sababtoo ah qiimaha sare, taasoo keentay in soo dejiyayaashu ay sii wadaan inay sugaan oo ay arkaan, baahida ugu weyn ee suuqa macaamiisha ee iibka ayaa si weyn hoos ugu dhacday, heerka kobaca kaydka ee Mareykanka ayaa kor u kacay. Kaydka Yurub ayaa si joogto ah u koray, hadda wuxuu kor u kacay ku dhawaad ​​98%, hoos u dhaca kobaca kaydka ayaa la filayaa inuu hoos u dhaco mustaqbalka.

c) Soo dejinta iyo dhoofinta dareeraha ah

Mareykanka ayaa la filayaa inuu soo dejiyo 0m³ wareeggan (10.23-10.29); Mareykanka waxaa la filayaa inuu dhoofiyo 3,900,000 m³, taasoo 4.88% ka hooseysa mugga dhoofinta dhabta ah ee 410,00,000 m³ wareeggii hore.

Waqtigan xaadirka ah, baahida liidata ee suuqa macaamiisha ugu muhiimsan iyo kaydka sare ayaa horseeday hoos u dhac ku yimid dhoofinta LNG ee Mareykanka.

a) Dulmar guud oo suuqa ah

Laga bilaabo Oktoobar 25, qiimaha terminalka LNG wuxuu ahaa 5,268 yuan/tan, kor u kac 7% marka loo eego usbuucii hore, hoos u dhac 32.45% sanadba sanadka ka dambeeya; Qiimaha aagga ugu muhiimsan ee wax soo saarka wuxuu ahaa 4,772 yuan/tan, kor u kac 8.53% marka loo eego usbuucii hore iyo hoos u dhac 27.43% sanadba sanadka ka dambeeya.

Qiimaha kor u kaca ayaa muujinaya isbeddel kor u kaca. Sababo la xiriira qiimaha sii kordhaya ee warshadda dareeraha ee Waqooyi-galbeed iyo qiimaha sare ee dareeraha badda, qiimaha kor u kaca ayaa la kordhiyaa rarkana waxaa horseeda qiimaha rarka oo sii kordhaya.

Laga bilaabo Oktoobar 25, celceliska qiimaha LNG ee laga helay dalka oo dhan wuxuu ahaa 5208 yuan/ton, kor u kac 7.23% marka loo eego usbuucii hore iyo hoos u dhac 28.12% sanadba sanadka ka dambeeya. Kheyraadka kor u kaca waxaa saameeya qiimaha shixnadaha, taasoo suuqa ku kalliftay inuu qiimaha badeecadaha sare u kaco.

Laga bilaabo Oktoobar 24, wadarta kaydka warshadaha LNG ee gudaha waxay ahayd 328,300 tan isla maalintaas, taasoo hoos u dhacday 14.84% marka loo eego muddadii hore. Maadaama kor u kaca qiimaha uu si isdaba joog ah u kordhay oo uu iibinayay badeecadaha, iibka kheyraadka hore wuu sii fiicnaaday, taasoo keentay hoos u dhac ku yimid kaydka.

b) Sahayda

Toddobaadkan (10.19-10.25) heerka hawlgalka ee 236 warshadood oo LNG ah oo gudaha ah ayaa muujinaya in wax soo saarka dhabta ah ee 742.94 milyan oo laba jibbaaran, heerka hawlgalka Arbacadan ee 64.6%, uu deggan yahay usbuucii hore. Heerka hawlgalka awoodda wax ku oolka ah ee Arbacadan ee 67.64%, oo kor u kacay boqolkiiba 0.01 dhibcood laga soo bilaabo usbuucii hore. Tirada warshadaha cusub ee dayactirka iyo xidhitaanka waa 1, iyadoo wadarta awoodda ay tahay 700,000 mitir saddex jibbaaran/maalintii; Tirada warshadaha cusub ee dib loo bilaabay waa 0, iyadoo wadarta awoodda ay tahay 0 milyan oo mitir laba jibbaaran/maalintii. (Fiiro gaar ah: Awoodda shaqo la'aanta waxaa lagu qeexaa wax soo saarka oo la joojiyay in ka badan 2 sano; Awoodda wax ku oolka ah waxaa loola jeedaa awoodda LNG ka dib marka laga reebo awoodda shaqo la'aanta. Wadarta awoodda wax soo saarka LNG ee gudaha waa 163.05 milyan oo mitir saddex jibbaaran/maalintii, iyadoo 28 xidhitaan muddo dheer ah, 7.29 milyan oo mitir saddex jibbaaran/maalintii awoodda shaqo la'aanta iyo 155.76 milyan oo mitir saddex jibbaaran/maalintii awoodda wax ku oolka ah.)

Marka laga hadlayo dareeraha badda, wadarta 20 markab oo LNG ah ayaa laga helay 13 saldhig oo qaabilaad gudaha ah wareeggan, taasoo ah koror dhan 5 markab toddobaadkii hore, mugga dekedduna wuxuu ahaa 1,291,300 tan, 37.49% marka la barbar dhigo 939,200 tan toddobaadkii hore. Dalalka ugu muhiimsan ee laga soo dejiyo wareeggan waa Australia, Qatar iyo Malaysia, iyadoo dekeddu ay timid 573,800 tan, 322,900 tan iyo 160,700 tan, siday u kala horreeyaan. Saldhig kasta oo qaabilaad ah, CNOOC Dapeng waxay heshay 3 markab, CNPC Caofeidian iyo CNOOC Binhai waxay heleen 2 markab midkiiba, saldhigyada kale ee qaabilaaddana waxay heleen 1 markab midkiiba.

c) Baahida

Wadarta baahida LNG ee gudaha ee toddobaadkan (10.18-10.24) waxay ahayd 721,400 tan, taasoo hoos u dhacday 53,700 tan, ama 6.93%, laga bilaabo usbuucii hore (10.11-10.17). Shixnadaha warshadaha gudaha waxay ahaayeen 454,200 tan, taasoo hoos u dhacday 35,800 tan, ama 7.31%, laga bilaabo usbuucii hore (10.11-10.17). Iyada oo ay ugu wacan tahay saldhigga qaabilaadda iyo warshadda dareeraha ah ayaa kor u qaaday qiimaha shixnadaha, iska caabbinta qiimaha sare ee soo dhawaynta ee dambe, taasoo horseedaysa hoos u dhaca shixnadaha.

Marka laga hadlayo dareeraha badda, wadarta guud ee shixnadaha saldhigyada qaabilaadda gudaha waxay ahayd 14,055 baabuur, taasoo hoos u dhacday 9.48% marka loo eego 14,055 baabuur usbuucii hore (10.11-10.17), saldhigga qaabilaadda ayaa kor u qaaday qiimaha shixnadaha, shixnadaha hoos u dhaca ayaa aad u adkaystay, guud ahaan shixnadaha mugga ee haamaha ayaa hoos u dhacay.