Qaybaha kala duwan ee suuqa waxay leeyihiin shuruudo kala duwan oo ku saabsan tayada iyo qiimaha ammonia.

Tan iyo 2022, qorsheynta mashruuca ammonia-ga cagaaran ee gudaha ayaa la geliyay dhismaha, iyadoo la tixgelinayo in muddada dhismaha mashruucu guud ahaan yahay 2 ilaa 3 sano, mashruuca ammonia-ga cagaaran ee gudaha ayaa ku dhow inuu keeno wax soo saar dhexe. Warshaduhu waxay saadaalinayaan in marka la gaaro 2024, ammonia-ga cagaaran ee gudaha ama ay gaari doonto soo gelitaan suuqa dufcad ah, awoodda sahayduna ay ku dhowdahay 1 milyan oo tan/sanadkii marka la gaaro 2025. Marka laga eego aragtida baahida suuqa ee ammonia-ga synthetic-ga, qaybaha kala duwan ee suuqa waxay leeyihiin shuruudo kala duwan oo ku saabsan tayada badeecadaha iyo qiimaha ammonia-ga synthetic-ga, waxaana sidoo kale lagama maarmaan ah in laga bilaabo astaamaha isbeddelka ee isku xirka suuqa kasta si loo sahamiyo fursadda suuqa ee ammonia-ga cagaaran.

Iyada oo lagu saleynayo qaabka guud ee saadka iyo baahida ammonia-da macmal ah ee Shiinaha, baahida tayada badeecada ee qayb kasta oo suuq ah iyo qiimaha ammonia, cilmi-baarista NENG Jing waxay si fudud u falanqaysay faa'iidada iyo booska suuqa ee ammonia-da cagaaran jiho kasta oo suuq ah si loogu tixraaco warshadaha.

01 Suuqa ammonia-ga cagaaran wuxuu leeyahay saddex tilmaamood oo waaweyn

Marxaladdan, saadka iyo baahida suuqa ammonia-da ee gudaha waa isku dheelitiran yihiin, waxaana jira cadaadis xad-dhaaf ah oo ku saabsan awoodda.

Dhanka baahida, isticmaalka muuqda ayaa sii kordhaya. Sida laga soo xigtay Xafiiska Qaranka ee Tirakoobka iyo xogta kastamka, suuqa ammonia-da ee macmal ah waxaa ugu badan isticmaalka gudaha, isticmaalka muuqda ee ammonia-da macmal ah ee gudaha ayaa kordhi doona qiyaastii 1% sannad kasta laga bilaabo 2020 ilaa 2022, isagoo gaaraya qiyaastii 53.2 milyan oo tan marka la gaaro 2022. Marka la gaaro 2025, iyadoo la ballaarinayo wax soo saarka caprolactam iyo aaladaha kale ee hoos yimaada, waxaa la filayaa inay taageerto kobaca isticmaalka ammonia-da macmal ah, isticmaalka muuqdana wuxuu gaari doonaa 60 milyan oo tan.

Dhinaca saadka, wadarta guud ee wax soo saarka ammonia-da macmal ah waxay ku jirtaa marxaladda "hoos u dhigista". Sida laga soo xigtay xogta Ururka Warshadaha Bacriminta Nitrogen, tan iyo markii la furay awoodda wax soo saarka ee ammonia-da macmal ah ee Shiinaha intii lagu jiray muddada "Qorshaha Shanta Sano ee 13aad", hagaajinta qaab-dhismeedka awoodda wax soo saarka ayaa la dhammeeyay 2022, awoodda wax soo saarka ammonia-da macmal ahna waxay is beddeshay hoos u dhac ilaa koror markii ugu horreysay, iyadoo ka soo kabanaysa 64.88 milyan oo tan/sanadkii 2021 ilaa 67.6 milyan oo tan/sanadkii, iyo in ka badan 4 milyan oo tan/sanadkii awoodda sanadlaha ah (marka laga reebo ammonia-da cagaaran) ayaa la qorsheynayaa inay soo degto. Marka la gaaro 2025, awoodda wax soo saarka ama in ka badan 70 milyan oo tan/sanadkii, khatarta ah in awood xad dhaaf ah la kordhiyo waa mid sareysa.

Beeraha, warshadaha kiimikada iyo tamarta ayaa noqon doona saddexda jiho ee ugu muhiimsan suuqa ee ammonia-da synthetic iyo ammonia-da cagaaran. Beeraha iyo kiimikada ayaa ah suuqa saamiyada ee ammonia-da synthetic. Sida laga soo xigtay xogta Zhuochuang Information, sanadka 2022, isticmaalka ammonia-da synthetic ee beeraha ayaa ka dhigan doona qiyaastii 69% isticmaalka guud ee ammonia-da synthetic ee Shiinaha, inta badan soo saarista urea, bacriminta fosfate iyo bacriminta kale; Isticmaalka ammonia-da synthetic ee warshadaha kiimikada ayaa ka dhigan qiyaastii 31%, kaas oo inta badan loo isticmaalo soo saarista alaabada kiimikada sida nitric acid, caprolactam iyo acrylonitrile. Qaybta tamarta ayaa ah suuqa mustaqbalka ee kobaca ammonia-da synthetic. Sida laga soo xigtay tirakoobka iyo xisaabinta cilmi-baarista Tamarta, marxaladdan, isticmaalka ammonia-da synthetic ee goobta tamarta ayaa weli ka yar 0.1% isticmaalka guud ee ammonia-da synthetic, iyo marka la gaaro 2050, saamiga isticmaalka ammonia-da synthetic ee goobta tamarta ayaa la filayaa inuu gaaro in ka badan 25%, xaaladaha suurtagalka ah ee codsiga waxaa inta badan ka mid ah sideyaasha kaydinta hydrogen, shidaalka gaadiidka, iyo gubashada ammonia-da ee warshadaha korontada kulaylka.

02 Baahida Beeraha - Xakamaynta kharashka hoose waa mid xooggan, faa'iidada ammonia ee cagaaran ayaa xoogaa ka yar, baahida ammonia ee beeraha waa mid deggan. Xaaladda isticmaalka ammonia ee beeraha waxaa inta badan ka mid ah soo saarista urea iyo bacriminta ammonia phosphate. Kuwaas waxaa ka mid ah, soo saarista urea waa xaaladda isticmaalka ammonia ee ugu weyn beeraha, waxaana la isticmaalaa 0.57-0.62 tan oo ammonia ah 1 tan oo urea ah oo la soo saaro. Sida laga soo xigtay Xafiiska Tirakoobka Qaranka, laga bilaabo 2018 ilaa 2022, wax soo saarka urea ee gudaha ayaa isbeddelay qiyaastii 50 milyan oo tan/sanadkii, baahida u dhiganta ee ammonia-da macmal ah waxay ahayd qiyaastii 30 milyan oo tan/sanadkii. Cadadka ammonia ee ay isticmaasho bacriminta ammonia phosphate waa qiyaastii 5 milyan oo tan/sanadkii, taas oo sidoo kale ah mid deggan.

Soo saarista bacriminta nitrogen ee beeraha waxay leedahay shuruudo yar oo fudud oo ku saabsan daahirnimada iyo tayada agabka ceeriin ee ammonia. Sida ku cad heerka qaran ee GB536-88, ammonia dareere ah waxay leedahay badeecooyin aad u fiican, badeecooyin heer sare ah, badeecooyin tayo leh oo saddex darajo ah, ammonia-da waxay gaartay 99.9%, 99.8%, 99.6% ama ka badan. Bacriminta nitrogen, sida urea, waxay leedahay shuruudo ballaaran oo ku saabsan tayada iyo daahirnimada alaabta, soosaarayaashuna guud ahaan waxay u baahan yihiin agab cayriin ah oo ammonia dareere ah si ay u gaaraan heerka badeecooyinka tayada leh. Qiimaha guud ee ammonia ee beeraha waa mid hooseeya. Marka laga eego aragtida sahayda ammonia iyo qiimaha ammonia, wax soo saarka bacriminta gudaha iyo qaar ka mid ah ammonia phosphate waxay leeyihiin warshad ammonia ah oo iskeed u dhisan, qiimaha ammonia wuxuu ku xiran yahay qiimaha suuqa ee dhuxusha, gaaska dabiiciga ah iyo hufnaanta warshadda ammonia, qiimaha ammonia guud ahaan waa 1500 ~ 3000 yuan/ton. Guud ahaan, qiimaha la aqbali karo ee ammonia ceeriin ee beeraha waa ka yar yahay 4000 yuan/ton. Sida laga soo xigtay xogta badeecadaha badan ee bulshada ganacsiga, laga bilaabo 2018 ilaa 2022, urea waa qiyaastii 2,600 yuan/ton qiimaha ugu sarreeya, iyo qiyaastii 1,700 yuan/ton qiimaha ugu hooseeya. Cilmi-baarista tamarta oo ay weheliso marxalado kala duwan oo kharashyada alaabta ceeriin ah oo dhammaystiran, kharashyada habka iyo arrimo kale, haddii aysan jirin wax khasaare ah, urea qiimaha ugu sarreeya iyo kan ugu hooseeya oo u dhigma qiimaha ammonia ee qiyaastii 3900 yuan/ton ilaa 2200 yuan/ton, khadka qiimaha ammonia ee cagaaran iyo heerka ka hooseeya.