Qaybaha kala duwan ee suuqyada waxay leeyihiin shuruudo kala duwan tayada ammonia iyo qiimaha.

Laga soo bilaabo 2022, qorshaha mashruuca ammonia cagaaran ee gudaha ayaa la dhisay, iyadoo la tixgelinayo in muddada dhismaha ee mashruuca guud ahaan yahay 2 ilaa 3 sano, mashruuca ammonia cagaaran ee gudaha wuxuu ku dhow yahay inuu keeno wax soo saarka dhexe. Warshadaha ayaa saadaaliyay in 2024, ammonia cagaaran gudaha ama ay gaari doonaan gelitaanka dufcada suuqa, iyo awoodda sahaydu waxay ku dhowdahay 1 milyan oo tan / sannadkii 2025. Marka loo eego baahida suuqa ee ammonia synthetic, qaybaha kala duwan ee suuqa ayaa kala duwan. shuruudaha tayada alaabta iyo qiimaha ammonia synthetic, iyo sidoo kale waa lagama maarmaan in laga bilaabo sifooyinka isbeddelka ee isku xirka suuq kasta si loo sahamiyo fursadda suuqa ee ammonia cagaaran.

Iyada oo ku saleysan qaabka guud ee sahayda iyo baahida dalabka ammonia synthetic ee Shiinaha, baahida tayada wax soo saarka ee qayb kasta oo suuq ah iyo qiimaha ammonia, NENG Jing cilmi baaris ayaa si fudud u falanqeysay faa'iidada iyo booska suuqa ee ammonia cagaaran jihada kasta oo suuq ah oo loogu talagalay tixraaca warshadaha.

01 Suuqa ammonia cagaaran wuxuu leeyahay saddex jiho oo waaweyn

Marxaladdan, sahayda iyo baahida suuqa ammonia-ka-sameeyaha ee gudaha ayaa ah mid dheellitiran, waxaana jira cadaadis awoodeed oo xad-dhaaf ah.

Dhanka baahida, isticmaalka muuqda ayaa sii socda inuu koro. Sida laga soo xigtay Xafiiska Qaranka ee Tirakoobka iyo xogta kastamka, suuqa ammonia synthetic waxaa u badan isticmaalka gudaha, iyo isticmaalka muuqata ee ammonia synthetic gudaha ayaa kordhin doona ilaa 1% sannadkii 2020 ilaa 2022, oo gaaraya ilaa 53.2 milyan tan 2022. By 2022. 2025, oo leh balaarinta wax soo saarka caprolactam iyo aaladaha kale ee hoose, waxaa la filayaa inay taageerto kobaca isticmaalka ammonia-ka-samaynta, isticmaalka muuqatana wuxuu gaari doonaa 60 milyan oo tan.

Dhinaca sahayda, wadarta guud ee wax soo saarka ammonia synthetic waxay ku jirtaa marxaladda "hoos u dhigista". Marka loo eego xogta Ururka Warshadaha Bacriminta Nitrogen, tan iyo markii la furay awoodda wax soo saarka dib-u-soo-saarka ammonia synthetic ee Shiinaha inta lagu jiro xilliga "Qorshaha Shanta Sano ee 13-aad", hagaajinta qaabdhismeedka awoodda wax-soo-saarka ayaa la dhammaystiray 2022, iyo wax-soo-saarka Awoodda ammonia synthetic ayaa iska beddeshay hoos u dhac ilaa koror markii ugu horreysay, ka soo kabashada 64.88 milyan tan / sannadkii 2021 ilaa 67.6 milyan tan / sannadkii, iyo in ka badan 4 milyan oo tan / sannadkii awoodda sanadlaha ah (marka laga reebo ammonia cagaaran) waa la qorsheeyay in la soo dago. Marka la gaaro 2025, awoodda wax-soo-saarka ama in ka badan 70 milyan oo tan/sanadkii, khatarta awoodda xad-dhaafka ah ayaa sareysa.

Beeraha, warshadaha kiimikada iyo tamarta ayaa noqon doona saddexda jiho suuqa ugu weyn ee ammonia synthetic iyo ammonia cagaaran. Beeraha iyo kiimikooyinka ayaa ka kooban suuqa saamiyada ee ammonia synthetic. Marka loo eego xogta Zhuochuang Information, sanadka 2022, isticmaalka ammonia synthetic ee beerta beeraha waxay ku xisaabtami doontaa qiyaastii 69% wadarta guud ee isticmaalka ammonia synthetic ee Shiinaha, inta badan soosaarka HOL, bacriminta fosfatka iyo bacriminta kale; Isticmaalka ammonia synthetic ee warshadaha kiimikada ayaa ah qiyaastii 31%, taas oo inta badan loo isticmaalo soo saarista alaabta kiimikada sida nitric acid, caprolactam iyo acrylonitrile. Qaybta tamarta waa suuqa mustaqbalka ee kordhinta ammonia-ka-samaynta. Marka loo eego tirakoobka iyo xisaabinta cilmi baarista tamarta, marxaladan, isticmaalka ammonia synthetic ee beerta tamarta ayaa weli ka yar 0.1% wadarta guud ee isticmaalka ammonia synthetic, iyo 2050, saamiga isticmaalka ammonia synthetic ee tamarta garoonka ayaa la filayaa inuu gaaro in ka badan 25%, iyo xaaladaha codsiga suurtagalka ah inta badan waxaa ka mid ah sidayaal kaydinta hydrogen, shidaalka gaadiidka, iyo gubasho-doped ammonia ee dhirta tamarta kulaylka.

02 Baahida beeraha - Xakamaynta qiimaha hoose waa mid xoogan, faa'iidada ammonia cagaaran ayaa yar yar, baahida ammonia ee beerta beeruhu waa mid deggan. Muuqaalka isticmaalka ammonia ee beeralayda inta badan waxaa ka mid ah soo saarista urea iyo bacriminta fosfooraska ammonium. Waxaa ka mid ah, wax-soo-saarka urea waa xaaladda ugu weyn ee isticmaalka ammonia ee beerta, iyo 0.57-0.62 tan oo ammonia ah ayaa la cunaa 1 tan oo HOL ah oo la soo saaro. Sida laga soo xigtay Xafiiska Tirakoobka Qaranka, laga bilaabo 2018 ilaa 2022, wax soo saarka urea gudaha ayaa isbeddelay ilaa 50 milyan oo tan / sannadkii, iyo baahida u dhiganta ee ammonia synthetic waxay ahayd qiyaastii 30 milyan oo tan / sannadkii. Qadarka ammonia ee ay isticmaasho bacriminta ammonium phosphate waa qiyaastii 5 milyan oo tan / sannadkii, taas oo sidoo kale ah mid deggan.

Soo saarista bacriminta nitrogen ee beerta beeraha waxay leedahay shuruudo dabacsan oo nadiif ah iyo tayada alaabta ceeriin ee ammonia. Marka loo eego heerka qaranka GB536-88, dareeraha ammonia wuxuu leeyahay badeecooyin aad u fiican, badeecooyin heerka koowaad ah, badeecooyin u qalma saddex darajo, amooniyadu waxay gaadhay 99.9%, 99.8%, 99.6% ama ka badan. Bacriminta Nitrogen, sida urea, waxay leedahay shuruudo balaadhan oo ku saabsan tayada iyo nadiifnimada alaabta, warshadeeyayaashuna guud ahaan waxay u baahan yihiin dareeraha ammonia alaabta ceeriin si ay u gaaraan darajada alaabooyinka u qalma. Qiimaha guud ee ammonia ee beeralayda waa mid aad u hooseeya. Marka laga eego dhinaca sahayda ammonia iyo kharashka ammonia, urea gudaha iyo qaar ka mid ah wax soo saarka bacriminta fosfooraska ammonium ayaa leh warshad ammonia ah oo iskeed u dhisan, qiimaha ammonia waxay ku xiran tahay qiimaha suuqa ee dhuxusha, gaaska dabiiciga ah iyo waxtarka warshadda ammonia. , Qiimaha ammonia guud ahaan waa 1500 ~ 3000 yuan/ton. Guud ahaan, qiimaha la aqbali karo ee alaabta ceeriin ammonia ee beerta beeralayda ayaa ka yar 4000 yuan / ton. Marka loo eego xogta badeecada badan ee bulshada ganacsiga, laga bilaabo 2018 ilaa 2022, urea waa ilaa 2,600 yuan/ton qiimaha ugu sarreeya, iyo ilaa 1,700 yuan/ton qiimaha ugu hooseeya. Cilmi-baarista tamarta oo ay weheliso heerar kala duwan oo kharashyada alaabta ceeriin ah, kharashyada habka iyo arrimo kale, haddii aan khasaare lahayn, HOL ee qiimaha ugu sarreeya iyo kan ugu hooseeya ee u dhiganta kharashka ammonia ee ku saabsan 3900 yuan / ton ilaa 2200 yuan / ton, kharashka ammonia cagaaran line iyo ka hooseeya heerka.