Yurub, suuqu wuxuu ku jiraa hoos u dhac toddobaadkan iyadoo garoonka Troll ee Norway uu hoos u dhigayo wax soo saarka oo ka baxsan qorshayaasha dayactirka ee hore, kaydka gaaska dabiiciga ah ayaa kor u kacay laakiin hoos u dhacay, laakiin qiimaha mustaqbalka ee TTF ayaa hoos u dhacay maadaama saamiyada gobolka ay hadda aad u badan yihiin.

Dalka Mareykanka, Luulyo 28, waqtiga maxalliga ah, dhuumaha gaaska dabiiciga ah ee burburay meel u dhow Strasburg, Virginia, ayaa ku soo laabtay socodkii caadiga ahaa, gaarsiinta gaaska dabiiciga ah ee loo diray terminaalka gaaska dabiiciga ah ee Cove Point ayaa ku soo noqotay caadi, mustaqbalka gaaska dabiiciga ah ee Port Henry (NG) ayaa hoos u dhacay ka dib markii uu kor u kacay.

a) Dulmar guud oo suuqa ah

Laga bilaabo Agoosto 1, qiimaha mustaqbalka ee gaaska dabiiciga ah ee Mareykanka ee Henry Port (NG) wuxuu ahaa 2.56 doolarka Mareykanka/milyan oo kuleyl ah oo Ingiriis ah, marka la barbar dhigo wareeggii hore (07.25) oo hoos u dhacay 0.035 doolarka Mareykanka/milyan oo kuleyl ah oo Ingiriis ah, hoos u dhacay 1.35%; Qiimaha mustaqbalka ee gaaska dabiiciga ah ee Nederland (TTF) wuxuu ahaa $8.744 / milyan BTU, hoos u dhacay $0.423 / milyan Btu marka loo eego wareeggii hore (07.25), ama 4.61%.

Dalka Mareykanka, qiimaha mustaqbalka ee Henry Port (NG) ee Mareykanka ayaa kor u kacay ka dibna hoos u dhacay toddobaadka dhexdiisa, heerkulka gudaha ee Mareykanka ayaa weli sarreeya, baahida isticmaalka gaaska dabiiciga ah ee gudaha ayaa aad u weyn, laakiin Luulyo 28 waqtiga maxalliga ah, dhuumaha gaaska dabiiciga ah ee burburay meel u dhow Strasburg, Virginia, ayaa dib u bilaabay socodka caadiga ah, gaarsiinta gaaska dabiiciga ah ee loo diray terminaalka gaaska dabiiciga ah ee Cove Point ayaa dib u bilowday caadi. Mustaqbalka gaaska dabiiciga ah ee Port Henry ee Mareykanka ayaa dib u gurtay ka dib markii uu kor u kacay.

Marka laga hadlayo dhoofinta, baahida suuqa Yurubiyaanka ayaa deggan toddobaadkan, dhoofinta LNG ee Mareykanka waxaa saameeyay arrimaha siyaasadda taraafikada ee Kanaalka Panama, xawaaraha marinnada Waqooyi-bari Aasiya waa xaddidan yahay, dhoofinta gaaska dabiiciga ah ee Mareykanka ayaa lagu qasbay inay yareyso, dhoofinta Mareykankana way hoos u dhacaysaa.

Marka laga eego dhinaca farsamada, mustaqbalka dekedda Mareykanka ee Henry Port (NG) waa isbeddel hoos u dhac ah, qiimaha mustaqbalka dekedda Mareykanka ee Henry Port (NG) wuxuu gaaray 2.57 doolarka Mareykanka/milyan BTU, KDJ wuxuu sii waday inuu hoos u dhaco ka dib markii looxyada dhimashada la jaray, dhaqdhaqaaqa hoos u dhaca ayaa weyn, MACD wali wuxuu muujinayaa isbeddel hoos u dhac ah ka dib markii looxyada dhimashada la jaray, kan dambe wuu sii wadi doonaa inuu hoos u dhaco, qiimaha mustaqbalka dekedda Mareykanka ee Henry Port (NG) toddobaadkan wuxuu muujiyay isbeddel hoos u dhac ah.

Yurub, kaydka suuqa Yurub ayaa hoos u dhacay, sida laga soo xigtay xogta Ururka Kaabayaasha Gaaska Dabiiciga ah ee Yurub ayaa muujinaya in laga bilaabo Luulyo 31, kaydka guud ee Yurub uu yahay 964Twh, saamiga awoodda kaydinta waa 85.43%, 0.36% ka yar maalintii hore.

Suuqyada Yurub ayaa toddobaadkan hoos u dhacay iyadoo garoonka Troll ee Norway uu hoos u dhigayo wax soo saarka marka loo eego qorshayaasha dayactirka ee hore, kaydka gaaska dabiiciga ah ayaa kor u kacay laakiin hoos u dhacay, laakiin qiimaha mustaqbalka ee TTF ayaa hoos u dhacay maadaama saamiyada gobolka ay hadda aad u badan yihiin.

Laga bilaabo Agoosto 1, waxaa la filayaa in Dekedda Mareykanka ee Henry Natural Gas (HH) ay muujiso qiimaha $2.6 / mmBTU, taasoo hoos u dhacday $0.06 / mmBTU, ama 2.26%, marka loo eego rubuci hore (07.25). Qiimaha booska Gaaska Dabiiciga ah ee Kanada (AECO) wuxuu ahaa $2.018 / mmBTU, oo kor u kacay $0.077 / mmBTU, ama 3.99%, bishii hore (07.25).

Port Henry Natural Gas (HH) waxay filaysaa in qiimaha booska uu hoos u dhaco iyo in sahayda gaaska ee Cove Point ay dib u bilaabato, laakiin Port Henry Natural Gas (HH) waxay filaysaa in qiimaha booska uu hoos u dhaco sababtoo ah dhoofinta LNG ee Mareykanka oo hoos u dhacday sababtoo ah xayiraadaha socodka Kanaalka Panama.

Laga bilaabo Agoosto 1, qiimaha Shiinaha (DES) ee soo galaya Waqooyi-bari Aasiya wuxuu ahaa 10.733 doolarka Mareykanka/milyan BTU, hoos u dhac 0.456 doolarka Mareykanka/milyan BTU marka loo eego rubacii hore (07.25), hoos u dhac 4.08%; qiimaha booska TTF wuxuu ahaa $8.414 / mmBTU, hoos u dhac $0.622 / mmBTU marka loo eego rubacii hore (07.25), hoos u dhac 6.88%.

Qiimaha qiimaha ee meelaha ugu badan ee la isticmaalo ayaa hoos u dhacay, baahida Yurub iyo Aasiya guud ahaan way degganayd, kaydka suuqa maxalliga ah ayaa weli ku filan, suuquna wuxuu sii waday sahayda xad-dhaafka ah, taasoo keentay hoos u dhaca qiimaha qiimaha ee dalka oo dhan.

b) Kaydka alaabta

Sida laga soo xigtay warbixinta Hay'adda Tamarta Mareykanka, kaydka gaaska dabiiciga ah ee Mareykanka wuxuu ahaa 2,987 bilyan oo cubic feet, taasoo ah koror dhan 16 bilyan oo cubic feet, ama 0.54%; Kaydka gaaska wuxuu ahaa 5,730 cubic feet, ama 23.74%, oo ka sarreeya sanad ka hor. Taasi waa 345 bilyan cubic feet, ama 13.06%, oo ka sarreysa celceliska shanta sano.

Toddobaadka dhammaaday Luulyo 21, sida laga soo xigtay xogta Ururka Kaabayaasha Gaaska ee Yurub, kaydka gaaska dabiiciga ah ee Yurub wuxuu ahaa 3,309,966 bilyan oo cag cubic ah, taasoo kor u kacday 79.150 bilyan cag cubic ah, ama 2.45%; Kaydka gaaska wuxuu ka sarreeyay 740.365 bilyan cag cubic ah marka loo eego sanad ka hor, taasoo ah koror dhan 28.81%.

Toddobaadkan, heerkulka Yurub iyo Mareykanka ayaa si tartiib tartiib ah u kordhay, baahida gaaska dabiiciga ah ee gobolkana way korodhay, taasoo keentay kororka isticmaalka gaaska dabiiciga ah, isla markaana horseedaysa heerka kobaca kaydka gaaska dabiiciga ah ee Yurub iyo Mareykanka oo hoos u dhacay, kuwaas oo ay ka mid yihiin sahayda sare ee Mareykanka oo wiiqantay, heerka kobaca kaydkana si weyn ayuu hoos ugu dhacay.

Isbeddellada kaydka gaaska dabiiciga ah ee caalamiga ah

c) Soo dejinta iyo dhoofinta dareeraha ah

Wareeggan (07.31-08.06) waxaa la filayaa in Mareykanka uu soo dejiyo 0m³; Mugga dhoofinta ee la filayo ee Mareykanka waa 3700000m³, taasoo 5.13% ka hooseysa mugga dhoofinta dhabta ah ee 3900000m³ wareeggii hore.

Waqtigan xaadirka ah, baahida soo dejinta LNG ee Eurasia ayaa weli deggan, taasoo ay saameeyeen xayiraadaha socodka Kanaalka Panama, dhoofinta LNG ee Mareykanka ayaa hoos u dhacday.

a) Dulmar guud oo suuqa ah

Laga bilaabo Agoosto 2, qiimaha saldhigga LNG ee qaata shidaalka wuxuu ahaa 4106 yuan/tan, hoos u dhac 0.61% marka loo eego usbuucii hore, hoos u dhac 42.23% sanadba sanadka ka dambeeya; Qiimaha aagga ugu muhiimsan ee wax soo saarka wuxuu ahaa 3,643 yuan/tan, hoos u dhac 4.76% marka loo eego usbuucii hore iyo 45.11% sanadba sanadka ka dambeeya.

Qiimaha sare ee gudaha ayaa muujiyay hoos u dhac, qiimaha kheyraadka dareeraha ah ee gudaha ayaa hoos u dhacay, taasoo keentay shixnadaha sare ee biyaha, saldhigyada qaabilaadda guud ahaanna way xasilloonaayeen, qiimaha guud ee shixnadaha suuqana hoos ayuu u dhacay.

Laga bilaabo Agoosto 2, celceliska qiimaha LNG ee laga helay dalka oo dhan wuxuu ahaa 4,051 yuan/tan, hoos u dhac 3.09% marka loo eego usbuucii hore iyo hoos u dhac 42.8% sanadba sanadka ka dambeeya. Baahida hoose waa mid daciif ah, hoos u dhaca qiimaha sare ayaa xukuma qiimaha hoose, qiimaha suuqana wuu hoos u dhacayaa.

Laga bilaabo Agoosto 2, wadarta kaydka warshadaha LNG ee gudaha waxay ahayd 306,300 tan isla maalintaas, taasoo kor u kacday 4.43% marka loo eego xilligii hore. Saamaynta duufaanta awgeed, shixnadaha kor u socda ayaa la xannibay, iibka kor u socdana wuxuu sii waday inuu hoos u dhigo qiimaha, laakiin baahida hoose way daciiftay, kaydka warshaduhuna way kordheen.

Shaxda qiimaha LNG ee gudaha

b) Sahayda

Toddobaadkan (07.27-08.02) 233 xog sahamin ah oo ku saabsan heerka hawlgalka warshadaha LNG ee gudaha ayaa muujinaya in wax soo saarka dhabta ah ee 635,415 milyan oo laba jibbaaran, heerka hawlgalka Arbacadan uu yahay 56.6%, isla sidii usbuucii hore. Heerka hawlgalka awoodda wax ku oolka ah ee Arbacadan uu yahay 56.59%, hoos u dhac boqolkiiba 2.76 dhibcood laga soo bilaabo usbuucii hore. Tirada warshadaha cusub ee loogu talagalay xiritaanka iyo dayactirka waa 4, iyadoo wadarta awoodda ay tahay 8 milyan oo mitir cubic/maalintii; Tirada warshadaha cusub ee dib loo bilaabay waxay ahayd 7, iyadoo wadarta awoodda ay tahay 4.62 milyan oo mitir cubic/maalintii. (Fiiro gaar ah: Awoodda shaqo la'aanta waxaa lagu qeexaa wax soo saarka oo la joojiyay in ka badan 2 sano; Awoodda wax ku oolka ah waxaa loola jeedaa awoodda LNG ka dib marka laga reebo awoodda shaqo la'aanta. Wadarta awoodda wax soo saarka LNG ee gudaha waa 159.75 milyan oo mitir cubic/maalintii, iyadoo 28 xidhitaan muddo dheer ah, 7.29 milyan oo mitir cubic/maalintii awoodda shaqo la'aanta iyo 152.46 milyan oo mitir cubic/maalintii awoodda wax ku oolka ah.

Marka laga hadlayo dareeraha badda, wadarta 20 markab oo LNG ah ayaa laga helay 14 saldhig oo gudaha ah oo qaabila maraakiibta, iyadoo tirada maraakiibta helay 1 markab ay ka yar tahay usbuucii hore, mugga imaatinka dekeduna uu ahaa 1.403 milyan oo tan, taasoo kor u kacday 13.33% laga bilaabo 1.26 milyan oo tan usbuucii hore. Dalalka ugu muhiimsan ee laga soo dejiyo wareeggan waa Australia, Qatar iyo Ruushka, iyadoo imaatinku uu ahaa 494,800 tan, 354,800 tan iyo 223,800 tan, siday u kala horreeyaan. Marka laga hadlayo saldhigyada qaabila, CNOOC Dapeng iyo State Grid Diafu waxay heleen 3 markab, CNOOC Zhuhai iyo State Grid Tianjin midkiiba wuxuu helay 2 markab, saldhigyada kalena wuxuu helay 1 markab.

c) Baahida

Wadarta baahida LNG ee gudaha ee toddobaadkan (07.26-08.01) waxay ahayd 702,900 tan, taasoo ah hoos u dhac 10,500 tan, ama 1.47%, laga bilaabo usbuucii hore (07.19-07.25). Shixnadaha warshadaha gudaha waxay ahaayeen 402,000 tan, hoos u dhac 0.17 milyan oo tan, ama 0.42%, laga bilaabo usbuucii hore (07.19-07.25). Iibka warshadaha dareeraha ah ayaa hoos u dhigay qiimaha, laakiin sababtoo ah gaadiidka duufaanta, oo saameeyay shixnadaha sare, wadarta guud ee shixnadaha warshadaha gudaha ayaa si yar hoos ugu dhacday.

Marka laga hadlayo dareeraha badda, wadarta guud ee shixnadaha saldhigyada qaabilaadda gudaha waxay ahayd 14327 baabuur, taasoo hoos u dhacday 2.86% marka loo eego 14749 baabuur usbuucii hore (07.19-07.25), hoos u dhaca guud ee qiimaha saldhigyada qaabilaadda ayaa yaraa, wareegga iibka suuqana wuu yaraaday, taasoo keentay hoos u dhac ku yimid shixnadaha haamaha.6