Rubucii hore, suuqa aniline-ku wuu isbeddelay, celceliska qiimaha bishiina si tartiib tartiib ah ayuu u kordhay. Tusaale ahaan, marka la soo qaato suuqa Waqooyiga Shiinaha, dhibicda ugu hooseysa rubuc-sanadka ayaa soo muuqatay bishii Janaayo, iyadoo qiimuhu ahaa 9550 yuan/ton, dhibicda ugu sarreysana waxay soo muuqatay bishii Maarso, iyadoo qiimuhu ahaa 13300 yuan/ton, farqiga qiimaha u dhexeeya sare iyo hoosena wuxuu ahaa 3750 yuan/ton. Qodobka ugu muhiimsan ee wanaagsan ee kor u kaca laga bilaabo Janaayo ilaa Maarso wuxuu ka yimid dhinaca saadka iyo baahida. Dhinac, rubuci hore, warshadaha waaweyn ee gudaha ayaa la mariyay dayactir xooggan, kaydka warshaduhuna wuu hooseeyay. Dhanka kale, soo kabashada baahida terminal-ka ka dib Xafladda Gu'ga waxay keentay taageero wanaagsan oo suuqa ah.

Waxqabadka sahaydu wuxuu sii waday taageero adag oo qiimaha aniline ah oo kor u kacay

Rubucii hore, waxqabadka saadka suuqa aniline ayaa sii socda si loo kordhiyo qiimaha. Ka dib Maalinta Sannadka Cusub, baahida saamiyada ee hoos u dhacday ka hor fasaxa ayaa korodhay, saadka iyo baahida dhinaca wanaagsan, qiimuhu wuxuu bilaabay inuu u muuqdo isbeddel dib u soo kabasho oo hooseeya. Ka dib Xafladda Gu'ga, dib-u-habaynta qalabka aniline-ka ee gudaha ayaa kordhay. Bishii Febraayo, guud ahaan warshadaha aniline-ka ee gudaha ayaa la saaray 62.05%, taasoo hoos u dhacday 15.05 boqolkiiba dhibcood laga bilaabo Janaayo. Ka dib markii la galay Maarso, baahida terminal-ka ayaa si fiican u soo kabatay. Inkasta oo culayska warshaduhu uu soo kabtay 74.15%, dhinaca saadka iyo baahida ayaa weli taageero cad u fidiyay suuqa, qiimaha aniline-ka gudahana wuu sii kordhay bishii Maarso. Laga bilaabo Maarso 31, qiimaha suuqa ee aniline-ka ee Waqooyiga Shiinaha wuxuu ahaa 13250 yuan/ton, marka la barbar dhigo 9650 yuan/ton horraantii Janaayo, koror wadareed oo ah 3600 yuan/ton, koror dhan 37.3%.

Awoodda cusub ee sii deynta ee hoos u dhacda ayaa sii yaraanaysa sahayda aniline

Rubucii hore ee 2023, wax soo saarka aniline-ka gudaha wuxuu ahaa qiyaastii 754,100 tan, taasoo kor u kacday 8.3% rubuc-rubuc iyo 1.48% sannadkii. Iyadoo ay jirto kororka sahayda, cutubka MDI ee 400,000-ton/sanadkii ee Wanhua ee Gobolka Fujian ee hoos yimaada ayaa la hawlgeliyay Diseembar 2022, kaas oo si tartiib tartiib ah isu beddelay mid caadi ah ka dib rubucii hore. Dhanka kale, cutubka cyclohexylamine ee 70,000-ton/sanadkii ee Wanhua ee Yantai ayaa bilaabay hawlgal tijaabo ah bishii Maarso. Ka dib markii awoodda wax soo saarka cusub la hawlgeliyay, baahida loo qabo aniline-ka walxaha ceeriin ee hoos yimaada ayaa si weyn u korodhay. Taasi waxay keentay in rubucii hore ee suuqa aniline-ka guud ahaan uu wali ku jiro xaalad sahaydu cidhiidhi tahay, ka dibna uu taageero xooggan u hayo qiimaha.

Faa'iidada warshadaha aniline ee rubuci hore ayaa si tartiib tartiib ah u korodhay

Faa'iidada aniline ee rubuci hore waxay muujisay koror joogto ah. Laga bilaabo Janaayo ilaa Maarso, marka la soo qaato Bariga Shiinaha tusaale ahaan, celceliska faa'iidada guud ee shirkadaha aniline ee gudaha waxay ahayd 2,404 yuan/ton, hoos u dhac 20.87% bishii bishii iyo 21.97% sannadkii. Rubucii hore, sababtoo ah sahayda yar ee suuqa aniline ee gudaha, qiimaha waxaa si cad u taageeray farqiga qiimaha ee sii kordhaya ee alaabada hoos u socota, faa'iidada warshadahana si tartiib tartiib ah ayaa loo hagaajiyay. Maadaama baahida suuqa gudaha iyo dhoofinta ee aniline ee rubuci hore iyo rubuci afraad ee 2022 ay wanaagsanayd, faa'iidada warshaduhu aad ayay u korodhay. Sidaa darteed, faa'iidada aniline ee rubuci hore ee 2023 ayaa si isdaba joog ah hoos ugu dhacday.

Baahida gudaha ayaa korodhay, dhoofintuna way yaraaday rubuci hore

Sida laga soo xigtay xogta kastamka iyo qiyaasaha macluumaadka Zhuo Chuang, dhoofinta aniline-ka gudaha ee wadarta guud ee rubuci hore ee 2023 ayaa la filayaa inay noqoto qiyaastii 40,000 oo tan, ama hoos u dhac 1.3% marka loo eego rubuci hore, ama hoos u dhac 53.97% sanadba sanadka ka dambeeya. Inkasta oo wax soo saarka aniline-ka gudaha uu sii waday isbeddel sii kordhaya rubuci hore, dhoofinta aniline-ka rubuci hore waxay muujin kartaa hoos u dhac yar marka loo eego rubuci hore sababtoo ah kororka muuqda ee baahida gudaha iyo faa'iido cad oo ku jirta qiimaha suuqa dhoofinta. Marka la barbardhigo rubuci hore ee 2022, sababtoo ah kororka muuqda ee agabka ceeriin ee Yurub rubuci hore ee 2022, cadaadiska kharashka ee soosaarayaasha aniline-ka maxalliga ah ayaa kordhay, baahida soo dejinta ee alaabada aniline-ka ee Shiinaha ayaa si weyn u korodhay. Iyada oo la raacayo faa'iidada muuqata ee qiimaha dhoofinta, soosaarayaasha aniline-ka gudaha ayaa aad ugu janjeeray inay dhoofiyaan. Iyadoo la sii daayay awoodda wax soo saarka ee cusub ee hoos u dhaca ee Shiinaha, isbeddelka sahayda ee adag ee ilaha booska gudaha ee aniline-ka ayaa noqon doona mid cad. Waxaa la filayaa in suuqa dhoofinta rubuca labaad uu wali sii ahaan karo heer hooseeya iyadoo sahaydu xaddidan tahay.

Rubuci labaad wuxuu filayay hawlgal naxdin leh oo kala duwan

Rubuca labaad, suuqa aniline ayaa la filayaa inuu ruxmo. Dhammaadkii Maarso qiimaha aniline wuxuu gaaray heer sare, iskahorimaadka badeecadaha hoos u dhaca ayaa kordhay bishii Abriil wuxuuna bilaabay hoos u dhac degdeg ah. Muddada gaaban iyo tan dhexe, cutubka aniline ayaa si tartiib tartiib ah dib ugu bilaabay wax soo saarka wuxuuna ku socdaa meel u dhow culays buuxa, dhinaca sahayda suuquna wuxuu u janjeeraa inuu dabacsanaado. In kasta oo Huatai ay qorsheyneyso inay sameyso kormeerka iyo dayactirka bisha Abriil, Fuqiang iyo Jinling waxay qorsheynayaan inay sameeyaan kormeerka iyo dayactirka bisha Maajo, ka dib Maajo, warshadaha taayirada terminal-ka ayaa galaya xilliga ka baxsan, taas oo si weyn u yareyneysa baahida loo qabo kaabisyada caagga ah ee hoos yimaada aniline, dhinaca sahayda iyo baahida suuqa aniline-na si tartiib tartiib ah ayuu u daciifin doonaa. Laga soo bilaabo isbeddelka alaabta ceeriin, inkastoo qiimaha benzene saafiga ah iyo nitric acid uu weli yahay mid xooggan, laakiin sababtoo ah faa'iidada warshadaha aniline ee hadda jirta ayaa weli ah mid hodan ah, sidaas darteed dhinaca kharashka ee kor u kaca togan ama xaddidan. Guud ahaan, rubuca labaad, iyadoo la eegayo asalka sahayda iyo baahida daciifka ah, suuqa aniline-ka gudaha ayaa laga yaabaa inuu maamulo dhammaan noocyada kala duwan ee isbeddelka.