一.Qaybtii labaad ee saadaasha aasaasiga ah

1.1 Saadaasha Waxsoosaarka

Marka loo eego cilmi baarista Longzhong Information, warshadaha wax soo saarka aniline waxay qorsheynayaan inay dhisaan 385,000 tan oo awood wax soo saar ah qeybta labaad ee 2023, mana jiro qorshe awood ka bixis ah. Awoodda wax-soo-saarka cusub ayaa inta badan lagu qaybiyaa Koonfurta Shiinaha, shirkadda la soo jeediyayna waxay ku qalabaysan tahay qalabka wax soo saarka ee hoose, horumarinta miisaanka silsiladda warshadaha, iyo dhimista wax iibsiga iyo gaadiidka iyo kharashyada kale ee hawlgalka.

Ka dib markii la sii daayo awoodda wax soo saarka cusub ee aniline mustaqbalka, waxay si weyn u bedeli doontaa qaabka sahayda aniline ee gudaha, iyo wax soo saarka aniline ee Koonfurta Shiinaha waxay u soo ifbixi doontaa warshadaha hoose ee ku hareeraysan fogaan dhow, si wax ku ool ah u yareeya qiimaha hoose ee alaabta ceeriin. . Qeybtii labaad ee sanadka, Yantai Wanhua waxay qorsheyneysay inay dib u habeyn ku sameyso, dhammaan qalabkeeda aniline-MDI ayaa joojiyay, ama saameeyay bixinta aniline ee qaar ka mid ah macaamiisheeda muddada dheer. Intaa waxaa dheer, Fujian Wanhua waxay qorsheyneysaa in ay soo saarto wax soo saarka Sebtembar, taas oo saameyn weyn ku leh qiimaha aniline ee koonfurta, waxaana la filayaa in qiimaha aniline ee qeybtii labaad ee sanadka uu noqon karo 9000-12000 yuan / tan

1.2 Saadaasha Isticmaalka

Qeybta labaad ee sanadka, qalabka dayactirka ee MDI ee polymerization-ka gudaha wuxuu ku urursan yahay Agoosto, Noofembar iyo Disembar, qalabka guud ayaa la filayaa inuu si weyn u yaraado, marka lagu daro aaladaha dibedda bilaha Luulyo iyo Agoosto waxaa jira dhowr qaybood oo dayactirka qalabka ah, guud ahaan hoos u dhaca saadka, qiimaha guud ee gudaha ayaa laga yaabaa inuu yeesho koror yar, laakiin bilaha Agoosto iyo Sebtembar sababtoo ah imaatinka xagaaga, cimilada sare waxay saameyn kartaa culeyska guud ee hoose, xaddididda awoodda, wax soo saarka xaddidan. Iyo sidoo kale warshadaha qalabka guriga ee xilliga ka baxsan, qiimaha way adagtahay in la taageero. Bilaha Oktoobar iyo Noofambar, iyada oo qalabka guriga ee hoose iyo warshadaha dhuumaha ay galeen xilli-ciyaareedka ugu sarreeya, iyo dayactirka macquulka ah ee aaladaha qaar ayaa la filayaa, waxaa suurtagal ah in ay sii socdaan. Qaybta labaad ee sanadka, waxa ugu wayn ee diiradda la saarayaa hoos u dhaca saadka iyo la socodka dhinaca baahida. Iyadoo la tixgelinayo in qiimaha polymerized MDI ee qaybta hore ee sanadka lagu hayo 14300-16300 yuan / ton, baahida ayaa la filayaa inay soo kabsato sanadka, celceliska qiimaha qaybta labaad ee sanadka ayaa wax yar ka sarreeya heerka. qeybta hore ee sanadka, qiimaha la filayo waxaa lagu hayaa 15500-17000 yuan/ton.

1.3 Saadaasha dhoofinta saafiga ah/soo dejinta saafiga ah

Waqtigan xaadirka ah, saadka iyo baahida gudaha ee aniline ayaa ah mid isku dheeli tiran, xamaasadda dhoofinta ayaa sii yaraanaysa. In kasta oo la dhimay kharashka wax-soo-saarka aniline-ka gudaha, baahida hoose waa mid xooggan, taas oo taageero gaar ah u leh qiimaha sare ee aniline. Waxaa la filayaa in tirada dhoofinta aniline ee qaybta labaad ee sanadka aysan wax badan iska bedelin marka loo eego qeybta hore ee sanadka, laakiin lama saarin in Aniline-ka dheeriga ah lagu iibin doono dibadda ka dib markii Fujian Wanhua la hawlgaliyo. .

1.4 Saadaasha dheelitirka bixinta iyo dalabka

二.Kharashka qaybta labaad ee saadaasha

Qeybta labaad ee sanadka, qiimaha saadaasha ee benzene saafi ah waa 6280-6800 yuan/ton, taasoo muujineysa isbeddelka kor u kaca marka hore ka dibna hoos u dhacaya.

Dhanka saliida ceyriinka ah, qiimaha saliida qeybtii labaad ee sanadka ayaa sameeyay fursad dib u soo celin ah, taasoo muujineysa kor u kaca marka hore ka dibna hoos u dhac ku yimid guud ahaan, celceliska qiimaha bishii ayaa laga yaabaa inuu isku beddelo inta u dhexeysa 75-78 US. dollar/fuusto, oo leh kala duwanaansho yar oo isbeddel ah.

Dhinaca sahayda, balaadhinta benzene saafiga ah ee ugu badan sanadka 2023 ayaa la dhamaystiray qeybtii hore ee sanadka, iyada oo in ka badan 3 milyan oo tan oo unug cusub oo petroleum benzene iyo hydrobenzene la hawl galiyay, iyo benzene saafi ah. wax soo saarka qeybta labaad ee sanadka ayaa la filayaa inuu muujiyo koror ballaaran marka loo eego qeybta hore ee sanadka. Qeybtii labaad ee sanadka, kaliya 100,000 tan oo ah awoodda kiimikada Anqing Petrochemical ayaa la ballaariyay bishii Luulyo, iyo 200,000 oo tan oo kiimiko Longjiang ah ayaa la dhisay dhammaadka sanadka. Si kastaba ha noqotee, benzene hydrogenated ayaa weli leh Puyang Zhonghui 500,000 tan, Chongqing Huafeng 200,000 tan, Ningxia Tongde Love 100,000 tan, Zaozhuang Zhenxing 200,000 tons, Henan Jin200 ilaa 0 milyan oo qalab cusub in la soo saaro afraad rubuc.

Marka la eego baahida, wax soo saarka hoose ee benzene saafi ah qeybtii labaad ee sanadka ayaa xoogga saaray, oo ay ku jiraan set afaraad ee styrene ee Zhejiang Petrochemical, styrene of Anqing Petrochemical, Hengli phenol cusub iyo adipic acid, Fujian Wanhua aniline, Lusi, Shenyuan , Baling Petrochemical kaprolactam cusub iyo qalab kale oo la qorsheeyay in la geliyo shaqada, iyo Qingdao Bay, Huizhou Zhongxin Phenol, kaas oo dib loo dhigay qeybtii hore ee sanadka. Marka laga soo tago qulqulka dhaqameed ee soo jireenka ah, baahida octane ee ethylbenzene iyo cyclohexane ayaa la filayaa inay bixiso kor u qaadista isticmaalka benzene saafi ah. Si kastaba ha ahaatee, qeybtii hore ee sanadka, noocyada hoose ayaa guud ahaan la kulmay hoos u dhac ku yimid culeyska warshadaha ka dib ballaarinta awoodda, iyo isticmaalka benzene saafi ah ayaa ka hooseeya awoodda wax soo saarka. Marka la eego isticmaalka dhamaadka qaybta labaad ee sanadka ayaan weli rajo ka qabin, waxaa la filayaa in isticmaalka benzene saafi ah uu si weyn hoos ugu dhigi doono marka loo eego qiimaha aragtida.

Marka la eego soo dejinta, baahida terminal ee Maraykanka iyo Yurub waxay sii wadaan inay niyad jabaan, iyo safarka xagaaga ee ugu sarreeya ee Maraykanka ee qaybta labaad ee sanadka ayaa dhammaan doona bisha Sebtembar, rabitaanka Waqooyi Bari Asia si ay u dhoofiyaan benzene saafi ah Shiinaha waxa la filayaa in uu kordho nuska dambe ee sanadka, mugga soo dejinta waxa laga yaabaa in uu ku noqdo heerka 250-300,000 tan/bishii.

Guud ahaan, qiimaha saliidda cayriin ee qaybta labaad ee sanadka waa mid go'an, iyo taageerada kharashka waa la isku daray. Qalabka wax-soo-saarka aragtida hoose wuxuu ka sarreeyaa rakibaadda cusub ee benzene petroleum iyo hydrobenzene, laakiin heerka dhabta ah ee hawlgalka ayaa la filayaa inuu hoos u dhaco guud ahaan, iyo mugga soo dejinta ayaa la filayaa inuu kordho, sidaas darteed dhinaca sahayda iyo baahida ee benzene saafi ah ayaa la wanaajiyey, laakiin baaxaddu waa xaddidan tahay. Qiimaha benzene saafi ah ayaa la filayaa rubuci saddexaad sababtoo ah soo celinta qalabka dayactirka ee hoose iyo dhismaha qalab cusub si loo helo qiimaha kor u kaca, laakiin sababtoo ah daciifnimada hoose ee faa'iidada isdhexgalka, benzene saafi ah ayaa kor u kacay sare ee hooseeya, iyadoo la sii daayay awoodda wax-soo-saarka hydrobenzene rubuci afaraad, dhinaca sahayda iyo baahida ayaa mar kale u rogtay sahay fara badan, ka dibna qiimaha ayaa la filayaa inuu muujiyo isbeddel hoos u dhac ah.

Rubuci labaad, aniline waxaa saameeyay baahida daciifka ah waxayna bilaabeen inay galaan kanaalka hoose. Iyada oo ku saleysan dib-u-habaynta qorshaysan ee Yantai Wanhua bisha Agoosto, haddii qorshaha dib-u-habaynta la fuliyo sidii loo qorsheeyay, waxa laga yaabaa inay awood u yeelato inay kor u qaaddo suuqa aniline. Si kastaba ha ahaatee, bishii Sebtembar, cutubyada Fujian Wanhua iyo Chongqing Changfeng 2 ayaa la hawl galiyay, waxaana sahayda aniline ee Koonfurta Shiinaha iyo Koonfur-galbeed ee Shiinaha ay si aad ah u korodhay, taas oo kobcisay ilaha wax iibsiga ee hoose. Guud ahaan, rubuca labaad iyo rubuca saddexaad ee suuqa aniline daciif ah, laakiin rubuca afraad, qaar ka mid ah kuwa hoose ayaa bilaabay inay helaan amarrada sanadka soo socda, baahida alaabta ceeriin waxay leedahay koror gaar ah, rubuci afaraad ee qiimaha aniline ayaa la filayaa inuu dib u soo kabsado. marka la barbardhigo rubuci saddexaad.