Qaybta labaad ee saadaasha aasaasiga ah

1.1 Saadaasha Wax Soo Saarka

Sida laga soo xigtay cilmi-baarista Longzhong Information, warshadaha wax soo saarka aniline waxay qorsheynayaan inay dhisaan 385,000 oo tan oo awood wax soo saar ah qeybta labaad ee 2023, mana jiro qorshe awood wax soo saar ah. Awoodda wax soo saarka cusub waxaa inta badan lagu qaybiyaa Koonfurta Shiinaha, shirkadda la soo jeediyayna waxay ku qalabaysan tahay aaladaha wax soo saarka ee hoose, horumarinta baaxadda silsiladda warshadaha, iyo dhimista wax soo iibsiga iyo gaadiidka iyo kharashyada kale ee hawlgalka.

Ka dib marka la sii daayo awoodda wax soo saarka cusub ee aniline mustaqbalka, waxay si weyn u beddeli doontaa qaabka saadka aniline ee gudaha, wax soo saarka aniline ee Koonfurta Shiinahana wuxuu ku faafi doonaa warshadaha hoos yimaada ee ku hareeraysan meel fog, taasoo si wax ku ool ah u yareyn doonta kharashka soo iibsiga alaabta ceeriin ee hoos yimaada. Nuskii labaad ee sanadka, Yantai Wanhua waxay qorsheyneysay inay dib u habeyn ku sameyso, dhammaan qalabkeeda aniline-MDI-na way joogsadeen, ama waxay saamaysay sahayda aniline ee qaar ka mid ah macaamiisheeda muddada dheer. Intaa waxaa dheer, Fujian Wanhua waxay qorsheyneysaa inay soo saarto bisha Sebtembar, taas oo saameyn weyn ku leh qiimaha aniline ee koonfurta, waxaana la filayaa in qiimaha aniline ee qeybta labaad ee sanadka uu noqon karo 9000-12000 yuan/ton.

1.2 Saadaasha Isticmaalka

Nuskii labaad ee sanadka, qalabka dayactirka MDI ee polymerization-ka gudaha ayaa la ururiyaa Agoosto, Noofambar iyo Diseembar, qalabka guud waxaa la filayaa inuu si weyn hoos ugu dhaco, marka lagu daro qalabka dibadda bilaha Luulyo iyo Agoosto waxaa jira dhowr nooc oo dayactir qalab ah, hoos u dhaca guud ee sahayda, qiimaha guud ee gudaha ayaa laga yaabaa inuu yeesho kor u kac yar, laakiin bisha Agoosto iyo Sebtembar sababtoo ah imaatinka xagaaga, cimilada heerkulka sare waxay saameyn kartaa culeyska guud ee hoose, xaddidaadda korontada, wax soo saarka xaddidan. Marka laga soo tago warshadaha qalabka guryaha ee xilliga ka baxsan, qiimuhu way adag tahay in la taageero. Oktoobar iyo Nofeembar, iyadoo warshadaha qalabka guryaha ee hoose iyo dhuumaha ay galayaan xilliga ugu sarreeya ee dhaqanka, iyo dayactirka macquulka ah ee aaladaha qaarkood la filayo, waa suurtagal in la sii wado kororka. Qaybta labaad ee sanadka, diiradda ugu weyn waxay saaran tahay yaraanta sahayda iyo dabagalka dhinaca baahida. Marka la eego in qiimaha MDI-ga polymerized-ka ah ee qeybta hore ee sanadka lagu hayo 14300-16300 yuan/ton, baahida ayaa la filayaa inay soo kabato sanadka, celceliska qiimaha qeybta labaad ee sanadka ayaa wax yar ka sarreeya heerka qeybta hore ee sanadka, qiimaha la filayona waa 15500-17000 yuan/ton.

1.3 Saadaasha soo dejinta/dhoofinta saafiga ah

Waqtigan xaadirka ah, sahayda gudaha iyo baahida aniline waa isku dheelitiran yihiin, xamaasadda dhoofintana way sii yaraanaysaa. Iyadoo ay hoos u dhacday kharashka wax soo saarka aniline ee gudaha, baahida hoos u dhacday waa mid aad u xooggan, taas oo taageero gaar ah u leh qiimaha sare ee aniline. Waxaa la filayaa in tirada dhoofinta aniline ee qeybta labaad ee sanadka aysan wax badan isbeddeli doonin marka la barbar dhigo qeybta hore ee sanadka, laakiin lama oga in aniline-ka dheeraadka ah lagu iibin doono dibadda ka dib marka Fujian Wanhua la hawlgeliyo.

1.4 Saadaasha dheelitirka saadka iyo baahida

Qiimaha qeybta labaad ee saadaasha

Qeybta labaad ee sanadka, qiimaha saadaasha benzene saafiga ah waa 6280-6800 yuan/ton, taasoo muujineysa isbeddel ah kor u kaca marka hore ka dibna hoos u dhaca.

Marka laga hadlayo saliidda cayriin, qiimaha saliidda qeybtii labaad ee sanadka ayaa soo bandhigay fursad dib u soo kabasho ah, taasoo muujinaysa isbeddel ah in marka hore kor u kaco ka dibna uu mar kale hoos u dhaco guud ahaan, celceliska qiimaha bishiina wuxuu ku kala duwanaan karaa 75-78 doolarka Mareykanka/foosto, iyadoo leh kala duwanaansho yar.

Marka laga hadlayo sahayda, inta badan ballaarinta benzene saafiga ah ee sanadka 2023 ayaa la dhammeeyay qeybtii hore ee sanadka, iyadoo wadar ahaan in ka badan 3 milyan oo tan oo cutubyo cusub oo benzene batrool iyo hydrobenzene ah la howlgelinayo, wax soo saarka benzene saafiga ah ee qeybta labaad ee sanadkana waxaa la filayaa inuu muujiyo koror ballaaran marka la barbar dhigo qeybtii hore ee sanadka. Qeybtii labaad ee sanadka, kaliya 100,000 oo tan oo ah awoodda batroolka Anqing ayaa la ballaariyay bishii Luulyo, 200,000 oo tan oo ah kiimikada Longjiang ayaa dhawaan la dhisay dhammaadka sanadka. Si kastaba ha ahaatee, benzene-ka hydrogenated-ka ah ayaa weli haysta Puyang Zhonghui 500,000 tan, Chongqing Huafeng 200,000 tan, Ningxia Tongde Love 100,000 tan, Zaozhuang Zhenxing 200,000 tan, Henan Jinyuan Phase II 200,000 tan iyo 1.2 milyan oo tan oo qalab cusub ah oo la qorsheeyay in la soo saaro rubuca afraad.

Marka laga hadlayo baahida, wax soo saarka hoose ee benzene saafiga ah qeybtii labaad ee sanadka ayaa la isku ururiyay, oo ay ku jiraan qaybta afraad ee styrene ee Zhejiang Petrochemical, styrene ee Anqing Petrochemical, Hengli new phenol iyo adipic acid, Fujian Wanhua aniline, Lusi, Shenyuan, Baling Petrochemical cusub caprolactam iyo aalado kale oo la qorsheeyay in la hawlgeliyo, iyo Qingdao Bay, Huizhou Zhongxin Phenol, kaas oo dib loo dhigay qeybtii hore ee sanadka. Marka laga soo tago hoos u dhaca dhaqameed, baahida octane ee ka timaadda ethylbenzene iyo cyclohexane ayaa la filayaa inay kor u qaaddo isticmaalka benzene saafiga ah. Si kastaba ha ahaatee, qeybtii hore ee sanadka, noocyada hoose guud ahaan waxay la kulmeen hoos u dhac ku yimid culeyska warshadaha ka dib markii la ballaariyay awoodda, isticmaalka benzene saafiga ahna wuxuu ka hooseeyay awoodda wax soo saarka. Marka laga hadlayo isticmaalka dhammaadka qeybtii labaad ee sanadka weli rajo ma leh, waxaa la filayaa in isticmaalka benzene saafiga ah si weyn dib loogu eego qiimaha aragtiyeed.

Marka laga hadlayo soo dejinta, baahida loo qabo badeecadaha terminal-ka ee Mareykanka iyo Yurub ayaa sii socota, heerka ugu sarreeya ee safarka xagaaga ee Mareykanka qeybta labaad ee sanadka ayaa dhammaan doona bisha Sebtembar, rabitaanka Waqooyi-bari Aasiya ee ah inay benzene saafi ah u dhoofiso Shiinaha ayaa la filayaa inuu kordho qeybta labaad ee sanadka, mugga soo dejintana wuxuu ku soo laaban karaa heerka 250-300,000 tan bishii.

Guud ahaan, qiimaha saliidda cayriin ee qeybta labaad ee sanadka waa mid go'an, taageerada kharashkana waa la isku daray. Qalabka wax soo saarka ee aragtiyeed ee hoose wuxuu ka sarreeyaa rakibidda cusub ee benzene-ka batroolka iyo hydrobenzene-ka, laakiin heerka hawlgalka dhabta ah ayaa la filayaa inuu hoos u dhaco guud ahaan, mugga soo dejintana waxaa la filayaa inuu kordho, sidaa darteed dhinaca saadka iyo baahida benzene-ka saafiga ah waa la hagaajiyay, laakiin baaxadda waa xaddidan tahay. Qiimaha benzene-ka saafiga ah ayaa la filayaa rubuci saddexaad sababtoo ah soo celinta qalabka dayactirka ee hoose iyo dhismaha qalab cusub si loo helo awoodda kor u kaca qiimaha, laakiin sababtoo ah faa'iidada hoose ee aan is-dhexgalka ahayn ee daciifka ah, benzene-ka saafiga ah ayaa kor u kacay heerka ugu sarreeya, iyadoo la sii daayay awoodda wax soo saarka hydrobenzene rubuci afraad, dhinaca saadka iyo baahida ayaa mar kale u jeestay sahay badan, ka dibna qiimaha ayaa la filayaa inuu muujiyo isbeddel hoos u dhac ah.

Rubucii labaad, aniline waxaa saameeyay baahida liidata waxayna bilowday inay gasho kanaalka hoos u dhaca. Iyada oo lagu saleynayo dib-u-habaynta la qorsheeyay ee Yantai Wanhua bishii Agoosto, haddii qorshaha dib-u-habaynta loo fuliyo sidii loo qorsheeyay, waxaa laga yaabaa inay awood u yeelato inay soo jiidato suuqa aniline. Si kastaba ha ahaatee, bishii Sebtembar, cutubyada Fujian Wanhua iyo Chongqing Changfeng 2 ayaa la hawlgeliyay, sahayda aniline-na ee Koonfurta Shiinaha iyo Koonfur-galbeed Shiinaha ayaa si weyn u korodhay, taasoo kobcisay ilaha iibka ee ku xeeran. Guud ahaan, rubucii labaad iyo rubucii saddexaad ee suuqa aniline ayaa daciif ahaa, laakiin rubucii afraad, qaar ka mid ah kuwa hoos u dhaca ayaa bilaabay inay helaan dalabaadka sanadka soo socda, baahida loo qabo alaabta ceeriin ayaa koror gaar ah leh, rubucii afraad ee qiimaha aniline ayaa la filayaa inuu dib u soo kabto marka la barbar dhigo rubucii saddexaad.